ABSTRACT
Restrictions on outdoor activities are required to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic. To monitor social risks and control the pandemic through sustainable restrictions, we focus on the relationship between the number of people going out and the effective reproduction number. The novelty of this study is that we have considered influx population instead of staying-population, as the data represent congestion. This enables us to apply our analysis method to all meshes because the influx population may always represent the congestion of specific areas, which include the residential areas as well. In this study, we report the correlation between the influx population in downtown areas and business districts in Tokyo during the pandemic considering the effective reproduction number and associated time delay. Moreover, we validate our method and the influx population data by confirming the consistency of the results with those of the previous research and epidemiological studies. As a result, it is confirmed that the social risk with regard to the spread of COVID-19 infection when people travel to downtown areas and business districts is high, and the risk when people visit only residential areas is low.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUNDTo fight severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), mass vaccination has begun in many countries. To investigate the usefulness of a serological assay to predict vaccine efficacy, we analyzed the levels of IgG, IgM, and IgA against the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 in the sera from BNT162b2 vaccinated individuals in Japan. METHODSThis study included 219 individuals who received two doses of BNT162b2. The levels of IgG, IgM, and IgA against RBD were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay before and after the first and second vaccination, respectively. The relationship between antibody levels and several factors including age, gender, and hypertension were analyzed. Virus-neutralizing activity in sera was measured to determine the correlation with the levels of antibodies. A chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay (CLEIA) method to measure IgG against RBD was developed and validated for the clinical setting. RESULTSThe levels of all antibody isotypes were increased after vaccination. Among them, RBD-IgG was dramatically increased after the second vaccination. The IgG levels in females were significantly higher than in males. There was a negative correlation between age and IgG levels in males. The IgG levels significantly correlated with the neutralizing activity. The CLEIA assay measuring IgG against RBD showed a reliable performance and a high correlation with neutralizing activity. CONCLUSIONSMonitoring of IgG against RBD is a powerful tool to predict the efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and provides useful information in considering a personalized vaccination strategy for COVID-19.